VALUE BETS
Value betting is a mathematical strategy for betting on underestimated events, the odds of which, according to the bettor, do not correspond to the real probability.
In other words, the player needs to find a coefficient in the lines of bookmakers, which is much higher than the real probability of this outcome.
To deal with value bets, you first need to understand how bookmakers form odds. So, many bookmakers have their own staff of analysts who calculate the probability of a particular outcome of a particular event and put odds on it.
But for sure, this staff sets probabilities only for top outcomes, and then all other results are automatically calculated, and odds are set, taking into account the bookmaker’s margin.
I would like to note that top outcomes are usually subject to the smallest margin, making it better to place value bets on such outcomes. Also, inflated odds may appear in the case when not all bookmakers simultaneously react to a quick change of events in a particular meeting.
In other words, when 10 bookmakers have already lowered the odds on one of the outcomes, and one bookmaker has not yet managed to do this, you need to place a bet in this office, thereby taking the highest coefficient on the market.
EXAMPLE
In this betting strategy, it is important to bet on a higher coefficient than the real probability of a particular outcome. The real probability is the odds without bookmaker margin and is best calculated as an average of several known bookmakers.
Let’s say that we have odds for the top outcomes W1 and W2 of a particular match from 5 bookmakers:
- B1: W1 — 1.52, W2 — 2.4
- B2: W1 — 1.49, W2 — 2.33
- B3: W1 — 1.46, W2 — 2.5
- B4: W1 — 1.43, W2 — 2.9
- B5: W1— 1.39, W2 — 2.7
Now let’s take B4 as an example and use it to calculate the real odds without taking into account the margin:
- 100/1.43 + 100/2.9 = 69.93 + 34.48 = 104.41% (everything above 100% is the bookmaker’s margin, and in our case it is 4.41%).
- 1.43 + 4.41% = 1.493; 2.9 + 4.43% = 3.027 — these are the real odds of the outcomes without taking into account the margin.
So, we have calculated real odds without margin, which are equal to 1.493 and 3.027. Thus, it suits us to bet on W1 with B1 because this coefficient is higher than the real probability of the outcome of the event (1.52>1.493).
ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF VALUE BETTING
If you learn how to analyze information correctly and find inflated odds, then this strategy can bring tangible income in the long run.
As for the disadvantages, perhaps the main one is that value betting is a strategy that does not guarantee you a 100% profit. In addition, as I mentioned above, this strategy can only bring income over a long distance, and if your unsuccessful streak drags on, it will take a very long time to go into profit.
CONCLUSION
Value betting is not a simple betting strategy, but with the right approach, it can really bring you a good profit, which many professional players have already confirmed.
