Betting on favorites

Betting on the favorite is considered the main mistake of newcomers to the betting world. The player registers in the office, and uses the logic: «Low odds means a 100% guarantee of the bet passing.» Of course, the opinion turns out to be wrong in the end. A large amount bet on the victory of the favorite can one day play a cruel joke on the player — sensations in sports are not so rare, so the loss will become painful. On the other hand, the right approach to betting allows bettors to bet on the favorite and at the same time turn out to be in the black. What factors are important for bettors to consider when betting? Let’s make the situation clear.

What is a favorite betting strategy?

The essence of such a strategy is to bet on the result, the coefficient of which does not exceed 1.55. It is believed that such a coefficient minimizes the risks of the player. In the betting community, this approach to betting is called «Safety». If we consider the principle in practice, an uninterested analyst will have questions — the percentage of passes is often only 60-70%, and this is not enough even to cover the losses from previous defeats, not to mention being in the black. The success of the «Safety» strategy is based on two key rules:

  • Never choose risky bets — the maximum odds are 1.55.
  • When a bet is placed on a favorite, bookmakers must offer an outsider’s victory with quotes exceeding the odds on the favorite by 2 or more times. For example, the victory of the first team is valued at 1.40, which means that the bookmaker must offer at least 2.80 for an outsider.

How to determine the favorite in sports betting? 

Of course, beginners in the world of betting prefer not to bother, relying entirely on the position of the bookmaker. When the odds for a team to win are below 1.55, then this team is the favorite. Sounds extremely simple, doesn’t it? But this is not enough for professional bettors. They use their own analysis, determining the clear favorite of the confrontation. The analysis is based on the following indicators:

  • In the last ten matches scored more points.  
  • The team has a better goal difference. 
  • The favorite always has an advantage in personal meetings.

In addition to the main factors, it is worth analyzing such aspects as the composition of the team, the psychological state, the presence of spectators at the stadium, the ideology of the coach, etc. Bookmakers often make mistakes.  For example, «Barcelona» is the favorite of the confrontation with «Benfica», however, a professional capper understands that the Catalan club has financial and psychological problems, an unstable situation, therefore it gives the status of the favorite to the Portuguese. In the end, Benfica won the match 3-0.

Favorite Betting Strategies 

According to the favorite betting strategy, a bet is made when the upcoming match meets the following characteristics:  

  • The favorite team is in peak form. The team has achieved several victories in a row and leaves no chance for opponents in the game. 
  • The team is playing at home. The help of native stands is confirmed even by scientists who analyzed the condition of the players playing at the home stadium.
  • The favorite has a motivation – for example, it is important for the team to win the championship, reach the playoff round from first place, etc.

Favorite bet example 

Consider the bet on the favorite of the confrontation on the example of the match between Bayern and Mainz. See if the bet meets the rules above?  A coefficient of 1.252 is offered for the favorite, and for Mainz — 12. Quotes for the outsider exceed the hands for the favorite by more than 2 times. Bayern have won 7 of their last 8 head-to-head matches and are in first place in the Bundesliga.  The Munich club has reached the peak of form, the team’s main scorer Robert Lewandowski scores regularly. In addition, Bayern are playing this match at home.  All conditions are met, so the capper can bet on Bayern as the obvious favorite of this confrontation.

Pros and cons of betting on the favorite

The main advantage of the strategy is the high probability of passing bets. As mentioned above, in football, more than 50% of bets on the favorite pass, so cappers can be in the black at a distance. On the other hand, low odds for the favorite to win is a key drawback that leads to a drain on the deposit, since cappers often place large bets on the favorite. Sooner or later, the series of victories is interrupted, and one defeat overlaps several positive results at once.

How to bet on the favorite and win?

The success of the strategy directly depends on which strategy the capper chooses in his bets. Experts advise using aggressive catch-up. According to this approach, the amount of the next bet is traditionally higher, and it is calculated based on the odds of the upcoming match. Aggressive catch-up recommends that the amount of the first bet be equal to 1-2% of the total pot. How to put the strategy into practice? To calculate the amount of the next bet, special calculators are used, which you will find in the public domain.

For an example of rates, let’s take the same Bayern, which won 11 victories in 14 matches of the national championship. Consequently, only 3 bets did not go to Munich — in 1, 7 and 12 games. Based on the statistics, it is enough to calculate aggressive catch-up in two steps. Let’s say your starting bet is $10 and you expect to make a profit of $3. The average odds for Bayern are 1.33. As a result, the second bet will be $39. In case of failure of the second bet, the third should already be $158, but it is difficult to imagine such a drought at the peak Bayern, especially in games against outsiders.

Good advice! Choose to bet on the favorite championships with low competition — the German Bundesliga, the French Ligue 1.

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