Monty Hall Problem. Is it Applicable in Sports Betting?
The Monty Hall problem is a tricky stats task. Let’s imagine three doors with two goats and one car behind them. You want to predict where the vehicle is, and select door 1.
Then anchorman checks doors 2 and 3 and reveals one with a goat. He selects the door at random if two doors have animals.
And here is the game: Do you remain committed to the initial choice (door 1) or switch to the other closed door? Is it important?
What is so thrilling is that the chances are not fifty-fifty. If you select the other door, the odds to win are 66.66%!
Let’s figure out why a straightforward game can be so bewildering!
Monty Hall Game
You are probably wondering how two doors deliver not a fifty-fifty chance. Well, let’s delve into details.
The trick is about re-estimating your choices as new info appears.
Play the game about 40 – 100 times, using playing cards and «select and hold strategy». Just select card 1 (or 2, or 3) and stick with card 1. If you look at the per cent win rate, you find out it settle around 33.33%.
Now play it 40 – 100 times via the «select and switch» system. Pick the card and switch to the other one. If you look at the per cent win rate, you find out it settle around 66.66%. Fantastic!
Monty Hall Problem Disclosure
Let’s realise how switching works. If you select the door and don’t change your choice, you have a 33.33% chance of winning. Your initial decision is 1 in 3 as there are three random variants. If you inflexibly stick with your initial choice, you can’t improve your odds. However, if you switch to the other door, you get the rest a 66.66% to hit the target!
Thinking that «two choices mean fifty-fifty odds» is our biggest baffle. Of course, two possible outcomes are equally likely when you know nothing about the situation. However, when someone helps you filter info, you get additional chances to win. The more information you know, the better choice you make!
The main principle is to re-estimate probabilities as you get new info. Initially, every door or card has an equal chance, but the odds are not the same after filtering the information. You add odds of already disclosure door to your initial chances.
Monty Hall in Sports Betting
Unfortunately, the Monty Hall problem is not applicable as a betting system. However, it has a broader implication. Even though no one can tell you how to estimate the chances of the match between Bayern and Real Madrid, it can motivate you to follow the system-based approach to placing bets on sports matches.
Our brain can resolve complex issues, reach effective judgements, and develop creative solutions to different problems. But the challenge is that we are also dependent on emotions and not aware of the complex nature of probabilities.
Monty Hall Problem teaches us to perceive information objectively. The ability to evaluate bet chances rationally is as crucial as understanding the sports you are betting on. Let’s learn the lessons of the known TV show and keep placing the right bets allowing us to boost up our bankrolls!
